2020 Web Vision

In 2001, Oberst’s Law boldly predicted the growth rate of Web. During the first decade of the Web’s existence, the number of pages doubled every six months, mirroring the principles of Moore’s Law. As the Web matured, the law anticipated this rapid growth would decelerate, shifting to a pace of doubling every year, and eventually every two years. Fast forward to 2016, when Google last measured the Web’s vast landscape, revealing an astonishing 130 trillion pages. True to Oberst’s projection, over those 15 years, this figure had doubled yearly. Given the explosive usage of the Web by hundreds of millions of individuals globally, combined with the dynamic nature of “pages” generated by social media, enterprise systems like AWS and Oracle, e-commerce giants such as Amazon, AI advancements, and streaming services, the Web continues its remarkable ascent, expanding at an exponential rate reminiscent of the ever-expanding Universe itself. The table below compares 2020 Web Vision’s predictions to what has transpired.

2020 WEB VISION” appeared in over a dozen countries on five continents, in universities such as Harvard, and at think tanks such as Pew. Over three-quarters of the predictions from this visionary work have come to life, revolutionizing our world with on-line shopping, transforming movies and education, and home offices. We’ve witnessed new migration patterns emerge, the globalization of work, and the haunting demise of traditional malls, all while entering the first phase of the Cloud. The future holds even greater promise, with innovations like virtual sales representatives, virtual office clubs, earth-saving circular delivery centers and the dynamic second phase of the Cloud on the horizon.

As we stepped into a new millennium, faith in technology reached exhilarating heights. Ambitious dotcoms, often lacking experience and tangible assets beyond a daring idea, soared to astounding market valuations in the billions. However, reality crashed in as countless dotcoms perished. The once high-flying NASDAQ plummeted over 60%, and what began as the longest economic expansion in U.S. history spiraled into a devastating recession that shook our very foundations.

Despite the disconcerting scenario, it was not the demise of the Web, but merely the conclusion of its innocent childhood or the first stage of meteoric growth. After all, the Web was only 10 years old. There were still trillions of dollars worth of opportunities, as the more rigorous applications waited to be accomplished. The Web is a revolutionary event (perhaps a once in 500-year transformation), yet there was no evident vision of its future. This book projects the Web into 2020s and beyond and will be of interest to anyone intrigued by it. The book clarifies the murky Web, showing how it will interconnect emerging digital technologies to revolutionize our home, work, and society.

PREDICTIONS VERSUS REALITY

PREDICTIONRESULTEXAMPLES
    HOMES
Movie streamingHappenedNetflix, Prime
Music streamingHappenedSpotify
Speech recognitionHappenedAlexa, Siri
Speech translationHappenedGoogle
Online educationHappenedNumerous colleges
3D shopping onlineHappenedIkea, Amazon AR View, Ohio Lodges
3D travelHappenedGoogle Earth, virtual reality
Financial systems onlineHappenedNearly all banks
Virtual tutorsHappenedKhan Academy, Coursera
Virtual conciergeHappenedVelocity Black
Virtual doctor house callsHappenedNumerous healthcare systems
Virtual changing roomsHappenedWarby Parker, Macy’s, Nordstrom
Elderly Robot Assistant (ERA)CloseJapan, TIAGo, MIT
Brain computer interface somewhatPartiallyNeuralink evolving
    BUSINESS
Online meetingsHappenedZoom, Microsoft Teams
Outsourcing company operationsHappenedAWS, Oracle
Globalization of workHappenedMost large companies, many small
Automation of service sectorHappenedVirtual CSRs, Online chat
Manufacturing 10% by 2020Partially8.5%
New migration patternsHappenedIdaho, Florida
Knowledge based companiesHappenedMeta, Alphabet, Chat GBT
Seniors working after retirementHappenedAARP
Government onlineHappenedSocial Security, Medicare, States
Political LeverageHappenedFacebook in 2016 campaign
Virtual human-like sales repsPartiallySales Ambassador,  Avataris
Virtual Office clubsHappenedStartMart, COhatch,
Robotic arm Pickers (RAPERS)Close
Web boxesNot Yet
Full Web delivery centersNot Yet
Second stage of the cloudNot Yet
     SOCIETY
Social mediaMissed
Virtual online communitiesHappenedPatientsLikeMe, Reddit, Coursera forums
Repurposing of mallsHappenedCollege campus, Corporate offices
Religion onlineHappenedJoel Osteen, Talk to Jesus
Low Earth orbit satellitesHappenedStarlink

REVIEWS 4.8 out of 5 Stars *****

***** Shirley Elliott A good read… I was about as Web savvy as a tube of toothpaste. Had I purchased this book then I would have understood little to none of the content… I am amazed Mr. Oberst had such a complete grasp of how the Web would change our lives in the next two decades. Though this is not a long book it has a plethora of information so reading it quickly is not an option. The information is well covered and explained. I’d recommend this book to anyone who is interested in how far back the Web has affected our personal lives, businesses, and most all other facets of what it takes to run our society and how it will affect us all in the future.

 ***** Jerry Palmisano,  A technician’s view. For the last four years I have been concentrating on the technical aspects of Web development. This book provided me with the background and business perpective I was missing so I can relate the work I’ve done to the larger framework of e-business. I would highly recommend this book.

****Hy Sockel, D.B.A. A weekend read Web Vision is not primarily a book about the Internet, the Web, e-business, or e-commerce; it is a vision of how these technologies will take society forward. The Internet is more than thirty years old and its technology is poised to enable society to take off in new directions. The book, Web Vision, explores these directions in logical and insightful ways… The book is well thought out, well reasoned, and well presented; consequently it is easy to read and follow. The ideas presented are done in a straightforward non-technical non-threatening manner… I found the chapters addressing work and virtual society to be particularly interesting. The author explores how cyber space can be used to create virtual offices, virtual meeting places, and virtual commuting, thereby providing a driving force in the next generation of work and play. The idea that technology can be used to help society’s problems is well presented and appealing.

**** “Web Vision is an excellent tool for evaluating the possibilities of not only the Web and its future, but of its impact upon our lives.”